The AGI Incentive Map
Gemini Deep Research project mapping who predicts AGI is imminent, who doesn't, and the financial incentives behind each position.
Raw Position (n=33 across Model Builders, Safety, Independents & Surveys): Every speaker predicting AGI by 2026–2027 holds $5.5B–$730B in frontier-lab or fund exposure. Click any node or switch to "Netted for Book" to isolate counter-incentive signal.
A Gemini Deep Research run cataloging 33 named figures across AI labs, academia, investors, skeptics, and policymakers — each tagged with their public AGI timeline, their stance on takeoff speed, and the financial exposure that shapes (or doesn’t shape) their position. The point isn’t to call anyone dishonest; it’s to make the incentive structure visible so the substantive arguments can be read against the right backdrop.
The output has five sections:
- The Correlation (n=33) — the raw pattern between equity/fund exposure and predicted AGI timeline
- Three Positions, One Technology — imminent-AGI bulls, skeptics, and the “powerful but bounded” middle
- The Money Behind the Claims — equity stakes, fund sizes, and revenue exposure per speaker
- The Signal (Controlled for Incentives) — what’s left to learn from the loudest voices once you net out their book
- The Bottom Line — the calibrated takeaway
Embedded below.