The AGI Incentive Map
Gemini Deep Research project mapping who predicts AGI is imminent, who doesn't, and the financial incentives behind each position.
Raw Position (n=33 across Model Builders, Safety, Independents & Surveys): Every speaker predicting AGI by 2026–2027 holds $5.5B–$730B in frontier-lab or fund exposure. Click any node or switch to "Netted for Book" to isolate counter-incentive signal.
A Gemini Deep Research run on one question: who says AGI is close, and what do they stand to gain if they’re right? It catalogs 33 named figures across AI labs, academia, investors, skeptics and policymakers, each with their public AGI timeline, their view on how fast takeoff goes, and the equity or fund exposure behind it. The aim is to read each argument against the speaker’s incentives, not to call anyone dishonest.
The report’s last sections net out each speaker’s financial book and ask what’s left to learn from the loudest voices. It’s embedded below.