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title: "The AGI Incentive Map"
date: 2026-03-20
type: project
blurb: "Gemini Deep Research project mapping who predicts AGI is imminent, who doesn't, and the financial incentives behind each position."
canonical: https://dazuck.com/projects#agi-incentive-map
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A Gemini Deep Research run cataloging 33 named figures across AI labs, academia, investors, skeptics, and policymakers — each tagged with their public AGI timeline, their stance on takeoff speed, and the financial exposure that shapes (or doesn't shape) their position. The point isn't to call anyone dishonest; it's to make the incentive structure visible so the substantive arguments can be read against the right backdrop.

The output has five sections:

- **The Correlation (n=33)** — the raw pattern between equity/fund exposure and predicted AGI timeline
- **Three Positions, One Technology** — imminent-AGI bulls, skeptics, and the "powerful but bounded" middle
- **The Money Behind the Claims** — equity stakes, fund sizes, and revenue exposure per speaker
- **The Signal (Controlled for Incentives)** — what's left to learn from the loudest voices once you net out their book
- **The Bottom Line** — the calibrated takeaway

Embedded below.

![[agi-incentive-map.html]]

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*This is the source markdown for https://dazuck.com/projects#agi-incentive-map.*  
*Full writing + projects index: https://dazuck.com/llms-full.txt*